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With Week 1 finally here, our weekly advice column for football pick 'em and office pools is back. In this post, we highlight six Week 1 picks that can help give you an edge to win an NFL pick 'em contest or confidence pool in 2019.
This value-driven approach to picks is a big reason why . Here's what it says about Week 1.
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Football Pool Strategy: Why pick popularity mattersOur pick advice is a little different than what you're probably used to seeing. Of course, we want to identify the most likely winner of each Week 1 game. But maximizing your edge in a football pick 'em pool also requires you to consider how your opponents are going to pick.
After all, you can only rise in the pool standings if you score points that your opponents mi s. So, you always need to be on the lookout for underrated teams that might be worth an educated gamble, and you need to avoid trendy upset picks that aren't worth the risk.
Week 1 Non-PPR Fantasy Rankings: | | | | |
Expert Week 1NFL Picks Advice: Pick 'em pools Keep in mind that we are not recommending that you make all of the picks below the upset picks especially. The best Week 1 picks for your specific NFL pool depend on a number of different dynamics, such as your pool's size, length, Rod Langway Jersey rules, and scoring system. (Our product recommends picks for you based on all those factors.)
What we are saying is that the teams mentioned in this post offer some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 1 picks from your pool opponents, or they serve as prime examples of when picking against the crowd is most likely a bad idea.
Note: Win odds and estimated national pick popularity data below may change between publication time and kickoff time. If you want to see the latest numbers, updates multiple times per day.

Favorites at Lars Eller Jersey reasonable prices
The two picks below are still overrated by the publicbut to a much le ser degree than other teams with similar risk profiles in Week 1. You should think twice about picking against these two teams because there are smarter upset pick opportunities elsewhere.
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Atlanta)
Starting from the biggest favorite this week (Seattle) and working your way down, Minnesota is the first favorite you hit that has a difference between pick popularity and win odds of around 10 percent. As a 3.5-point favorite in the betting markets, the Vikings have just under a 65-percentchance to beat Atlanta and 73 percentof the public is picking Minnesota. That's a reasonable premium for a favorite of more than a field goal.
Although a recent point spread move against Minnesota isn't the greatest news (the Vikings used to be -4.5), there are several highly overrated teams at this risk level this week, two of which we highlight in the Value Gambles section below.
As another comparable, a whopping 92percent of the public is picking Cleveland to beat Tenne see. The Browns, at 68-percentwin odds, aren't much more likely to win than Minnesota.
Chicago Bears (vs. Green Bay)
Chicago has a very similar profile to Minnesota this week. The Bears are being picked by 72 percentof the publicand have about a 63-percentchance of winning if you average our models and the betting markets.
YetGreen Bay, a 3.5-point underdog, is four times as popular an upset pick as another 3.5-point underdog this week. (Keep reading. Oh the suspense...)
It's always difficult to completely decode public perception. First, hopes are high that Aaron Rodgers will regain his stature as one of the best QBs in the game with a new coach and offensive system in 2019. That outcome seems Christian Djoos Jersey by no means guaranteed, though. Over the past four years Rodgers is 20th in yards per attempt among all quarterbacks who have thrown at least 1,000 pa ses.
Green Bay had also dominated this series until last year, when the Bears won the second of two meetings and covered the spread in both games. Before last season, though, the Packers had won 12 of the last 14 head-to-head matchups and covered the spread in 11 of them.
Narratives aside, real money being bet on this game implies that Chicago has the better chance to win, and that Green Bay is too trendy of an upset pick compared to the alternatives.
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Unpopular to s-up picks
When a matchup is pretty much a 50/50 proposition, it usually makes sense to pick the le s popular team. To win an NFL pick 'em pool, you're probably going to need some luck in these "coin flip" games, and when you get it, you want to maximize the upside.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. San Francisco)
The Buccaneers and 49ers are basically brothers from another city. Both teams feature offensive gurus at head coach (Bruce Arians in his first year in Tampa Bay; Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco) and fairly potent pa sing attacks. Both teams also had bottom-five ranked scoring defenses in 2018, which helps explain why they racked up 11 and 12 lo ses, respectively.
Tampa Bay was favored by Matt Niskanen Jersey one point in the betting markets at post time, yet a small majority of the public (about 56 percent) is going with the 49ers. That may be because San Francisco, a suming a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo at QB, is expected to make a bigger jump upward in the wins column in 2019 than Tampa Bay.
Regardle s, with the help of Tampa Bay's home field advantage, these teams look evenly matched, and the fact that the Bucs are only 44-percent picked is the cherry on top.
Denver Broncos (vs. Oakland)
In 2018 the Raiders finished with the NFL's second-worst record, and were dead last in the NFL in points allowed per game. But after some offseason moves like adding WR Antonio Brown, the betting markets (and our 2019 preseason NFL predictions) expect Oakland to improve this year.
Perhaps because of that optimism, around two-thirds of the public is picking the Raiders to win their season opener at home.
Our models disagree, making Denver the slight favorite to win. Thisgame was an even Pick 'em in the betting markets at post time, with the point spread having moved significantly in Denver's favor after opening with the Raiders favored Jaromir Jagr Jersey by 2.5 points.
Denver will be playing its first game under new head coach Vic Fangio, so perhaps the public antic